Projected Avoided Costs of Conventional Power Plants in Libya Using Wind Energy

الملخص

This paper investigates the costs that can be avoided by using wind energy in the central coastal area of Libya. The investigation of the capacity credit was performed in a previous work. The analysis included Fuel saving, capacity saving and emission reduction (NO, SO2 and CO2) to the atmosphere. The avoided costs were translated into equivalent energy costs of wind energy systems. The evaluation was conducted using the reliability (LOLP) analysis and the contribution of wind system during peak demand to the utility total electricity generation system. The calculations were carried out using WASP (Wien Automatic System Planning Package) for the proposed period of 2009-2019 where wind power installation would increase from 100 MW in 2009 to 500 MW in 2019.

The results showed that the avoided costs of wind energy will increase from 2.4 c/kWh in 2009 to 8.6 c/kWh in 2019. The mean value of the avoided costs of wend energy over the 10-year period is 6 c/kWh, which would make wind power economically competitive with conventional power plants in Libya. Further investigations of detailed external costs of all energy systems in the national energy mix, as well as the feed-in tariff, are recommended and should be introduced to the national energy sectors in order to promote the implementation of wind energy and other renewable energy technologies.