Solar Photovoltaic Power Prediction Using Statistical Approach-Based Analysis of Variance

المؤلفون

  • Muataz Al Hazza
  • Hussain Attia
  • Khaled Hossin American University of Ras Al Khaimah, Ras Al Khaimah, UAE

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.51646/jsesd.v13i2.181

الكلمات المفتاحية:

Solar PV system، Renewable energy forecasting، Statistical modeling، ANOVA، Fit summary.

الملخص

مع زيادة الطلب العالمي على الطاقة وارتفاع التحذيرات البيئية المدعومة من قبل الأمم المتحدة وأهداف التنمية المستدامة في عام 2015، أصبح من الضروري الانتقال من الأنظمة الطاقية التقليدية إلى الأنظمة المتجددة، خاصة أنظمة الطاقة الشمسية. ومع ذلك، يجب أن يتم دعم هذه الانتقالات بنماذج تنبؤية يمكن أن تساعد في توقع مقدار القدرة المتولدة من هذه المنظومات. يهدف هذه البحث إلى تطوير نموذج قائم على البيانات بناءً على نهج إحصائي. تم استخدام تحليل التباين ANOVA وملخص التناسب كأدوات في إنشاء النموذج. تم استخدام ثلاثة متغيرات مدخلة، وهي الإشعاع الشمسي العالمي، والرطوبة النسبية الجوية، ودرجة الحرارة الجوية، جنبًا إلى جنب مع متغير الإخراج وهو قدرة الإنتاج. لتطوير النموذج تم استخدام 360 قراءة خلال ست ساعات من الساعة 10:00 صباحًا إلى الساعة 4:00 مساءً. تم استخدام ايضا برنامج Stat-ease لتطوير النموذج. يظهر النموذج الإحصائي التربيعي نتائج مهمة مع خمسة حدود إحصائية. تمت مقارنة النموذج المطور بمقارنة البيانات المعملية الحقيقية مع تلك التي تم حسابها بواسطة النموذج. أظهرت عملية التحقق اختلافًا متوسطًا بنسبة 7.35٪.

التنزيلات

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المقاييس

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التنزيلات

منشور

2024-06-27

كيفية الاقتباس

Al Hazza, M., Attia, H., & Hossin, K. (2024). Solar Photovoltaic Power Prediction Using Statistical Approach-Based Analysis of Variance. Solar Energy and Sustainable Development Journal, 13(2), 45–61. https://doi.org/10.51646/jsesd.v13i2.181

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